18 Ocak 2011 Salı

Saturday Readings

  • A fitting end to the Porsche soap opera: Volkswagen buys the company for ?8 Billion, Wiedeking out (Reuters, WSJ)
  • CIT limps into weekend, seeking lifeline (NYT, WSJ and Bloomberg)
  • California's budget gap won't close for long (Reuters)
  • Shake up at Fortress: Fannie's Mudd to replace Edens (Bloomberg)
  • The great bank earnings that weren't (Motley Fool, h/t Robert)
  • Charlie's story - a pugnacious pundit Wall Street can't ignore (FT, h/t Janet)
  • Boeing engineer passed secrets to China (Guardian)
  • Orwellian moment of the day: Amazon erases Orwell books from Kindle (NYT)
  • A modest proposal: make banker bonuses payable in electric cars (Daily Finance)
  • Larry Summers cites Google search as progress (Politico, h/t Vaughan)
  • Two more banks added to FDIC closure list, hundreds more to go (MarketWatch)
  • How to be a day trader (Telegraph)
  • Day trading: "I lost £200,000 in a day" (Telegraph)
  • Unemployment map of England (Guardian)





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State Street On Liquidity Black Holes

Liquidity, as frequent readers know, is a fascinating topic to Zero Hedge. Liquidity black holes, as one would imagine, is doubly so. However, when a firm like State Street, which is at the heart of the multi-trillion dollar stock lending skeleton of the market discusses both of these concepts, one must pay attention. The below report is a State Street presentation from 2003 discussing what happens in those episodes when liquidity disappears and how that impairs all other axes of proper market function.

Of notable attention is the following section of the report:

The presence of liquidity problems in the largest of markets suggests that liquidity is not about size, but diversity.

In an illiquid market the same size of sell order will push the market down further than in a liquid market. Imagine a market where there is a large number of market participants, using the exact same information set, in the exact same way, to trade the exact same financial instruments. When one buys they all do and vice versa. Market participants would face volatility and illiquidity when they came to buy or sell. This would not be reduced by having more players, only by increasing the amount of diversity in their actions. (Indeed, on these assumptions it is possible to show that the bigger the market was, the less liquid it would be). Now imagine a market with just two players but with opposite objectives or opposite ways of defining value. When one wants to buy the other wants to sell. This market is small, but the price impact of trading would be low and liquidity would be high.

The referenced diversity is a crucial concept in today's market where an unprecedented amount of market trades occurs in undiverse dark and HFT pools. As Goldman is becoming the primary conduit of trading (whether principal or agency) in virtually all markets, the risk of a massive liquidity drain becomes exponentially larger, and the risk of an exogenous event approaches LTCM and Lehman levels. It is this key risk driver that regulators should be focusing on, instead of chasing and attempting to punish the perpetrators of the most recent market crash (we are not saying they should not, but they should prioritize and now should focus on what is most critical to maintaining a functioning market topology). The Too Big To Fail is a psychological construct which however does not have parallels in the market. Once Goldman reaches a tipping point of eliminating liquidity diversity, the potential fallout escalates. This is precisely the realm in which any x sigma events will occur in the future. And nobody seems to care.
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Relative Central Bank Balance Sheets And Currency Races To The Bottom

Zero Hedge posts a weekly update of the Federal Reserve's bloated balance sheet as we believe it is critical to visualize the spiraling debt burden at our "central bank" especially since any day now the Fed will begin purchasing treasury securities outright in defiance of Geithner's lies to the contrary (China can't sell its planned Bills: at 0.925 Bid-To-Cover does anyone honestly think they will instead prefer to buy dollar denominated toiler paper and not roll out their own QE version momentarily?). As Cornelius pointed out earlier the dollar can't find a floor these days: rerisking is rampant the argument goes and that kills the greenback. However, the circular logic also holds: create dollar pain (by whatever means possible) and thus stimulate the market, Larry Summer's all time wet dream (would anyone like to wager that when hedge fund positional disclosure become mandatory DE Shaw will fight until the bitter end). And in this simplistic trilateral world (have fun gaming the yuan), the strength of any one of the trio in the dollar-yen-euro triangle results in implicit weakness of the other two. And vice versa. Yet aside from major broker-dealers who are axed in a given equity direction and thus have all the incentive to impact underlying currencies, is it possible that specific governments may manipulate currency strength via central bank positioning? Why yes.

Comparing the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the ECB indicates that certain shanningans by the former two (and particularly massive agency purchasing specifically by the former former) may be responsible for persistent weakness of their respective currencies to the detriment of a (hyper)inflation allergic Europe (America's brush with the Weimar Republic was luckily offset by 3,000 miles of salt water, and even the UK had the Chunnel to thank). The bottom line is that while the Fed and the BE's balance sheets continue expanding, that of the ECB has been in shrinkage mode for a while now. Behold:

Federal Reserve:

Bank of England:

European Central Bank:

The most curious thing is that the absent the half a trillion reduction in foreign bank liquidity swaps the Fed's balance sheet would be in the stratosphere. But the premise is Europe is stable so Bernanke can rein those in. Ironically the more pressured Europe is to take up America's and Britain's economic slack, the more pronounced will be the pressure on Europe, both fiscally and monetarily, resulting in yet another eventual round of liquidity swap bail outs (and that is without even mentioning the "Eastern European Question"). But for now America is happy (the dollar is getting pillaged) and a disorganized Eurozone is dropping deeper into deflationary chaos (has anyone heard a peep out of Raiffeisen Bank lately? - speaking of RZB, it is enough to note that a Google search of the bank results in the first two hits being its Czech and Russian subsidiaries). How long can this persist? For a direct answer, the best proxy may, ironically, be the S&P500 yet again. Keep a close eye: the unwind of the central bank balance sheet game theory defection race (as well as every other unwind) will manifest itself there first.

Hat tip Andy Dufresne who seems to have found a good internet connection in Zihuatanejo




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Dollar And Yen Fall On Risk Seeking Trend

Recent news coming out indicates that investors are buying the indications from earnings reports, housing data and other tepid macro news releases - of course the resulting dollar and yen weakness is not ultimately surprising, no matter what our views on the "safe haven" theory.


The implication of a strong dollar/yen rebound in the event of another crash has been pretty well documented by various outlets but the more interesting story is any further downside risk to the dollar/yen. It's pretty clear that the somewhat linear relationship between say, EUR/USD and any number of bullish indicators (SPY, HG, the Big Mac index), until now is somewhat untenable going forward and is likely to at least slow down. If the bullish sentiment is ultimately right and we have returned to "normal", the ridiculously strong macro linkages we have been seeing until now are likely to break. However, if we see a bounce back south any gains posted can vaporize as quickly as they came.


On net, the risk/reward for further weakness in the dollar/yen is pretty unattractive going forward. We may eventually get back to the FX levels (1.6 EUR anyone?) that we know and love but for now, there are more attractive things to do than to short the dollar.




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Unemployment Rate By State: June Update

The most recent BLS State unemployment data is out. At this rate of job loss, Michigan will see 100% unemployment in about one year. Otherwise, state by state unemployment increased by 2.8% on average (unweighted) from May until June.

Some notable states June unemployment rates and May-June rate of change:

  • Michigan: 15.2%, 7.8%
  • California: 11.6%, 0.9%
  • Nevada: 12.0%, 6.2%
  • Texas: 7.5%, 5.6%
  • New York: 8.7%, 6.1%
  • Wyoming: 5.9%, 18.0%
  • Nebraska: 5.0%, 13.6%




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Jones Day's Chrysler Charge To Taxpayers: $12,702,190.19

Chrysler's little parade in bankruptcy court to make sure a few hundred thousand unionized workers retain their jobs for another year or two is finished. And here is the bill to you, dear taxpayer (or rather the first of many): Jones Day's invoice is in the mail. Everyone take out their wallets and please split the $12,702,190.19 equally. After all, now that we are all benefiting form having a much leaner, much more competitive Chrysler around, we should all be happy to pay each and every lawyer who made it possible.


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Jones Day has been kind enough to provide taxpayers with a breakdown of expenses incurred while working day and night to crack this determined from day one case.

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Is The SLP The NYSE's Answer To Direct Edge's "Advance Look" Enhanced Liquidity Provider Program?

There is a curious article in the latest edition of Traders Magazine. It is curious mostly because it was allowed to be published, as it definitively peels off the cover of what truly happens at the pantheon of stock exchanges, that dominated by a private club of select high frequency traders, who obtain better and faster pricing than everyone else, and where the group of "select few" is seemingly legally allowed and even encouraged to front-run the "every-one else" (you, dear reader, are most likely in the latter camp). If you ever wondered why HFT generates profits of over $20 billion a year, please read this article.

As for Zero Hedge's intents, we would yet again request feedback from the proper authorities on whether one can derive more than superficial similarities between the method of operation of Direct Edge's Enhanced Liquidity Provider (ELP) program and NYSE's Supplemental Liquidity Provider program (aka, the Goldman kiss). Amusingly, it is none other than the NYSE's own Larry Leibowitz who raised the most ruckus about the potential abuse of the ELP program.

At an industry conference on market structure in May, a panel on market centers broached the subject of "flash" orders and almost ended in fisticuffs. In one corner was defending champion William O'Brien, CEO of Direct Edge. In the other was Larry Leibowitz, his hot-under-the-collar opponent from the Big Board...The head of U.S. execution and global technology at NYSE Euronext assailed Direct Edge's Enhanced Liquidity Provider or ELP program as the "enhanced look" program, comparing it to the advance look at orders that NYSE specialists used to get. That practice was seen as giving specialists unfair advantages over other market participants, and potentially disadvantaging order senders.

Wait, Flash orders, enhanced looks... What?

From the article:

Flash orders are also called "step up" or "pre-routing display" orders. The rationale for these order types is simple: Better me than you. They allow a venue to execute marketable orders in-house when that market is not at the national best bid or offer, instead of routing those orders to rival markets. They do this by briefly displaying information about the order to the venue's participants and soliciting NBBO-priced responses. [TD: frontrunning is not quite the right word here, but it fits so damn well] If there are no responses, the order can be canceled or routed to the market with the best price.

All four markets with flash orders treat these orders in a similar way. If they get a marketable buy order, for instance, that would otherwise be routed to a market quoting at the NBBO, they flash the order to some or all of their participants as a bid at the same price as the national best offer. Exactly who sees the flash, how that information is conveyed and the duration of the flash vary by market. The maximum allowable time for a flash is 500 milliseconds, or half a second, although most of the markets flash routable orders for under 30 milliseconds.

NYSE Euronext's anti-flash tirade didn't end with the SIFMA conference. The exchange operator, along with market-making firm GETCO and SIFMA, weighed in on the Nasdaq and BATS flash order types with formal letters to the Securities and Exchange Commission. NYSE and SIFMA urged the SEC to abrogate the Nasdaq rule filing and reject BATS's filing. All three pushed the SEC to study the potential impact of flash orders on the marketplace before deciding whether to give them free rein.


NYSE and GETCO charged that markets with flash orders were essentially running private markets of quotes for select participants that competed with the public quote stream. With Nasdaq and BATS rolling out new order types to combat Direct Edge, the upshot, in their view, was bad market structure and probably eventual harm to investors.

[read the following paragraph very closely as it is at the heart of the 4 month long tirade on Zero Hedge against the NYSE, against Program Trading, against the SLP and against Goldman Sachs]

These firms and SIFMA argued that flash order types call into question some of the basic tenets of the equities market structure. In various combinations, they claimed that the effort to keep flow in-house undermines the concept of a quotation, impairs the meaningfulness of the NBBO, jeopardizes liquidity provision by hurting liquidity providers quoting at the NBBO, and potentially upsets the pursuit of best execution.

So the NYSE is making a mega fuss about a potential market entrant that does what everyone else does - understandable, nobody like competition, especially not the New York Stock Exchange which has been losing market presence and top line revenue by the boatload recently. Yet the question stands just how much of this "best kept secret" protocol does the NYSE employ currently to facilitate Supplementary Liquidity Providers, or rather, Provider (singular) - Goldman Sachs. When one firm dominates 50% of principal HFT trading on an exchange and, according to the above logic, can legally front run the other half, what does that mean for the rest of the world?

Continuing with the article:

NYSE Euronext, despite frowning on flash orders, may wind up joining the party. Joe Mecane, executive vice president for U.S. markets at the company, notes that if the SEC allows these flash order types to stand, NYSE Arca would probably convert an existing order type into a flash-type interaction, and would look to more broadly disseminate that information. [TD: Or already is via the SLP?] "If the SEC is implicitly allowing private access to information, we'll need to do it to be competitive," he said. NYSE Euronext may decide to offer flash orders on the NYSE as well, Mecane said. Nasdaq, for its part, is implementing a flash-type order this month on Nasdaq OMX BX, its Boston equities market.

Wait, the NYSE is waiting for the deliberations of the same SEC after it did not even care to hear back on whether or not the NYSE's SLP deserves a comment period, objections, and traditional response time, and which waited until the last day to file an extension automatically assuming it would be granted...(And granted of course it was, as the only beneficiary again was Goldman Sachs.)

The primary argument against flash orders is that they create private markets and are therefore a step back for market structure. "These programs are creating a private locked market for a small group of participants, and they are holding up the execution process for that marketable order," Mecane said. He added that the Big Board operator isn't against dark pools, competition or innovative business models. "Our issue is that this creates a tiered market," he said.

Market maker GETCO told the SEC that by creating a two-tiered market, flash orders give professionals receiving the flashes a leg up over other investors. Non-public quotes could also "negatively affect the broader market, including retail investors who rely on the NBBO to ensure that their orders obtain the best, reasonably available price," the firm said. GETCO argued that flash orders, like dark liquidity that executes at the NBBO, also leave limit orders that established the best price in the lurch.

One wonders what the response of the SEC will be to this allegation. One wonders less, once it becomes painfully clear that any condemnation of two-tiering and flash orders would potentially automatically preclude Goldman from trading 1 billion PT shares a week for its prop trading accounts.

Ironically, NASDAQ and BATS already may be in enough hot water to really raise the temperature on not only Direct Egde but the NYSE as well:

Direct Edge's O'Brien draws a distinction between how the information his market disseminates is seen and what Nasdaq and BATS are doing. His flashes, he said, are sent out on a different data feed than the ECN's depth-of-book feed, while Nasdaq's and BATS's flash orders are not. As a result, the latter exchanges' feeds look like they're locking the market. (Last month, both exchanges added a flag to flashed orders to identify them for subscribers.)

In Selway's view, this argument clouds the point. The point, he said, is that order messages are being broadcast at prices that, effectively, lock protected quotes. This creates an elite tier of traders with access to better-priced orders than those receiving public quotes through the securities information processors, giving flash recipients an information advantage, he said.

Ok, so where are the plethora of voices claiming that advanced exchange looks are completely innocuous and nobody suffers as a result of a select few profiting massively... We are waiting.

Direct Edge's O'Brien argues that critics of his market's ELP program are twisting a successful innovation into a regulatory concern for purely competitive reasons. He said the ELP program gives participants a choice about how they want their order flow handled, and enables customers to lower their market-impact and transaction costs. He also notes that critics of the ELP program, which includes dark pools among its participants, are anti-internalization. Internalization refers to the ability of brokers to match customer orders away from public markets. But the ECN's flash orders, on the contrary, O'Brien said, have "democratized access to dark liquidity sources by enabling retail customers to choose to interact with that liquidity to seek larger-size executions and potentially better prices."

Would one be shocked that the NYSE would be so vocally against Direct Edge when it has the SLP in its back pocket effectively dominating what could be the biggest flash trading market in history? Many more questions remain unanswered, but we hope readers now have a much better sense of the continuing fight against the ever more evident extensive informational advantage that Goldman Sachs may probably have thanks to its monopoly of the SLP program.




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